China Has Learned How to Deal with Trump After a Month

After high-level economic and trade talks held in Geneva, Switzerland, China and the United States released a joint statement on May 12, pledging to remove 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of tariffs. In response to this significant development,Guancha.cn connected with Professor Shen Yi from Fudan University’s Department of International Politics for further analysis.

【Organized by Observer Network Dai Su Yue, Zheng Le Huan】

Guancha.cn: Following constructive outcomes from the high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks, both parties released the “Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement.” Does the conclusion of this statement mean that both parties have returned to the pre-tariff friction starting point? After this bout of negotiation, what impacts did it bring to both sides?

Shen Yi:From the perspective of the joint statement itself, it reflects two main aspects.

Firstly, in terms of tariffs, some were removed, some were suspended, and a mechanism has been established. Certain non-tariff barriers were also removed or suspended. Essentially, a “truce mechanism” was achieved, avoiding a worst-case head-on collision scenario. In this process, Americans played the aggressive role, while we defended and pushed back. Currently, both sides are in a relatively stable state, but it’s uncertain what will happen next.

On the other hand, over the past month, we have become accustomed to a pattern of what the goal of Trump’s tariff threats is and how we effectively negotiate with him. Clearly, without reciprocal countermeasures, it’s tough to bring him back to reason. Over the past month, we have adopted various reciprocal tariff and non-tariff measures to counter the US, making Trump a relatively rational negotiating counterpart again. However, the outcomes of such negotiations remain uncertain.

Once a consultation mechanism is in place, what’s next? It depends on when Trump signs executive orders implementing tariff reduction measures outlined in memorandums. We need to observe closely to see the impact on economic and trade relations between the two countries.

As for more far-reaching effects, even if tariffs are restored now, should we prepare more and form strategic plans to tackle US tariff strategies? While from a rational standpoint, we don’t want to see a recurrence, we must be ready to handle and control the negative impacts from the Trump administration’s arbitrary actions.

Guancha.cn: Can we say this round of the tariff battle is a victory for China?

Shen Yi:Of course, it is a victory. Initially, we were doing business properly, and they imposed a 125% tariff on us. We retaliated equivalently, pushing them back and adding a series of non-tariff countermeasures, forcing the other side to negotiate with us. At the Geneva negotiation table, we prompted the other side to rescind tariffs on us, and we reciprocated, effectively pushing them back and stalling their bullying actions, which is undoubtedly our victory.

It’s like some people say the Korean War ended with both sides at the 38th parallel. What was the war for? They didn’t see us push the US fire back at the Yalu River, forcing the other side to settle in a truce agreement. If this isn’t victory, what is?

Many people now have a feeling of dissatisfaction, thinking it wasn’t a so-called thorough victory. However, the reality of customary international competitions is shown like this today. The recently deceased Joseph Nye spoke of a world of complex interdependence, and it still holds. Although we often say Trump doesn’t abide by the rules, our views of the world shouldn’t be entirely controlled by our emotions. We cannot fall into the same logic as Trump.

The second thing we need to do is dare to win and be adept at winning. What does it mean to dare to win? It asks if you have the courage to proclaim victory. It’s like obtaining such significant achievement at Geneva, yet not admitting victory even when it’s placed before us. Could it be a sign of insecurity? Secondly, being adept at winning requires understanding why we achieved this success. Besides institutional advantages, the core factor is being pragmatic and respecting science.

We shouldn’t have the expectation that victory entails Americans kneeling before you, saying “I’m sorry, I was wrong, and I won’t dare next time.” That’s unrealistic. Looking for a single action leading to complete submission like in a Hollywood or Bollywood movie with a happy ending won’t realistically occur. Previously, we often mentioned a protracted “Century Marathon,” we cannot be impatient after just over a month.

Yes, this past month has been tough, with endless difficulties and anxiety as natural consequences. But this is reality. If we aim to become a core player in the international system, we must adopt a mindset and recognition: First, when an adversary aggressively approaches, have the courage to reject. Second, when achieving phased results, acknowledge the victory with courage. Third, recognizing victory as merely the first round, possibly incomplete, while more uncertainties and prolonged, arduous contests await. Having these cognitive maturity and philosophies reflects readiness for systemic involvement in a strategic power competition.

When engaging strategic contests with an irrational opponent, there is an easy tendency to “When you look into the abyss, the abyss also looks into you.” Before realizing, you could inadvertently become the subject you staunchly oppose. Hence, under any circumstances, we need to maintain our bottom line, understand China’s national interests, and objectively perceive and recognize the basic regulations and core characteristics of Sino-US strategic power contests to construct a more accurate expectation. This understanding of interactions and strategies between China and the US is what we currently need to do.

Guancha.cn: As you mentioned the Korean War, the Sino-US tariff battle entered such a “Shangganling Moment.” Amidst such negotiation and confrontation, how should we perceive and handle these fluctuations?

Shen Yi: All Americans can do now is reinstate the lifted tariffs, and we can follow by applying reciprocal countermeasures. Non-tariff barrier measures, whether lifted or suspended, could be reinstated—if they want to escalate, we have new escalation measures in our toolkit.

It’s important to understand that sometimes strategic contests between nations are tedious, repeating the same tools and tactics. Utilizing such tools and tactics against you, the opponent aims to dismantle your will: either pierce you directly with one blow or wear you down into despair through repeated tussling, leading to surrender.

From unilateral US tariff increases to current negotiations, the first round isn’t over yet. Only when the US fulfills all negotiation commitments will this first round end. During the 2018 Sino-US trade negotiations, we negotiated from May to July, and just as we concluded, the US suddenly imposed another wave of tariffs leading to a negotiation breakdown. Such scenarios could occur in the future, so we need to be prepared.

Trump is such an “Fang Tang Mirror”-style negotiation counterpart, continuously repeating “I’m in, I’m out” acts. If it’s standard US political elites, this meaningless probing and repetition should have ceased long ago. But in reality, Trump is such a cognitively dissonant person, set on a wrong course, compelling us to accompany throughout, withstand pressure, and provide corresponding stimuli to alter his behavior. Honestly, based on our understanding of Trump, if he stops making trouble later and allows the matter to pass peacefully, it’s unrealistic. After all, acting outrageously and being shameless are trademarks of his strategic maneuvering.

[Editor Note: “Fang Tang Mirror” is a character from the Chinese comedy star Stephen Chow’s movie “Hail the Judge,” known for his unpredictable personality]

Guancha.cn: If Trump indeed maintains the predicted flip-flopping on tariffs or economic issues with China, what is his cost?

Shen Yi: Trump must pay a price, which depends on the domestic mechanisms of the United States. Dealing with someone like Trump requires continuously making the U.S. incur substantial costs. As a result, increasingly evident domestic constraints on Trump will develop in the U.S.

Firstly, the current situation has effectively deepened the constraints and limitations Trump faces domestically. Today, U.S.-China relations are quite different from 2018. Compared to 2025, the countermeasures China took against the U.S. in 2018 caused relatively mild shock effects and didn’t result in phenomena such as empty docks, empty containers, or skyrocketing prices and incentives. With these stimuli, we can cautiously and optimistically expect Trump to quiet down for a while. At least, the lesson learned by Trump or those around him is much greater than in 2018. In all of Trump’s previous statements, the maximum authorization obtained by Bessent was somewhat beyond all parties’ expectations. So far, Trump has at least shown he can accept this plan.

Secondly, it can now be proven that there are several areas where Trump can feel the pain, such as when the bond market fluctuates or when specific service sectors or product imports are affected, causing Trump to make certain statements. It’s simple—just focus on these directions and attack them systematically.

Meanwhile, we need to understand that the domestic countermeasures in the U.S. that can influence Trump are to make every elite and common group in America, apart from Trump, realize Trump’s policies are wrong. In this cognitive context, many forces will come out to try and influence and constrain Trump.

What is Trump’s domestic game against those attempting to influence him? Trump only needs to prove to them that his crazy and irrational gameplay can indeed bring asymmetric benefits to the U.S. We have to prove: 1) This type of irrational gameplay won’t bring any asymmetric benefits to the U.S.; 2) This gameplay will inflict even greater losses on the U.S. If you’re slightly more sensible, the damage to the U.S. might be less; if you go on a crazy tirade, the losses will only grow. This will lead to corresponding constraints on Trump being effectively enforced domestically.

Guancha.cn: Trump’s tariff chaos is not only targeted at China. Although a few countries did “knee slide” directly at first, more countries did not reach agreements with Trump. After China and the U.S. reached such a joint statement, what impact and lessons will this have on negotiations between major global economies and the Trump administration?

Shen Yi: For other countries, the most crucial thing is to learn from China’s experience, specifically how China reached an agreement with Trump—firstly by being reciprocal; without reciprocal countermeasures, why would Trump reach an agreement with you? If you’re unable to make Trump bear any costs, he will continue with this tariff bullying policy. So, since countries have seen China’s exemplary role, they must emulate the entire approach.

Among major global economies, the EU has a set of sanction lists for the U.S. If the U.S. does not lift tariffs by the deadline, the EU will still take reciprocal retaliation against the U.S., but currently, U.S. tariffs on the EU are being implemented, so the EU’s countermeasures are one tier weaker than China’s.

Japan’s countermeasures are even weaker, as we haven’t heard of Japan having any retaliation list against the U.S. so far. Occasionally, Japan will make some statements regarding bonds or zero tariffs. Even weaker is the UK’s approach, where it proactively went to negotiate, and what was the outcome? They got nothing, tariffs didn’t decrease, and chaos ensued.

What did we discover about achieving the best outcome? By implementing reciprocal countermeasures against the U.S. Mexico and Canada took this route, so these two countries have held firm until now, and the U.S. dares not provoke them much.

So, in a sense, if other countries want to emulate or change this situation, the strategy should be to learn from China and align with or form alliances together. They should even approach China to say they hope China can lead to a multilateral mechanism or some more flexible arrangements under the WTO framework in the future, allowing other countries to reach negotiations on this issue more equitably and similarly to the way between the U.S. and China. This can be envisioned and anticipated.

In summary, the stronger the resistance, the smaller the losses incurred; the weaker the resistance, or complete capitulation, the greater the losses suffered.

High-level China-U.S. economic and trade talks held in Geneva, Switzerland. Picture shows the Chinese delegation leaving the conference venue, sourced from Reuters.

Guancha.cn: The joint statement mentions “taking necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliation measures against the U.S. from April 2, 2025,” and many are concerned whether this “non-tariff retaliation” involves lifting restrictions on rare earth exports to the U.S. What are your thoughts on this?

Shen Yi: Regarding rare earths, here is a news release from the Ministry of Commerce:

In order to thoroughly implement the decisions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, on May 12, 2025, the National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism Office organized the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of State Security, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the SASAC, the General Administration of Customs, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the State Post Bureau and other departments, as well as local competent authorities from strategic mineral resource-concentrated provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan, to hold a meeting in Changsha City, Hunan Province to deploy work on strengthening full-chain control of strategic mineral exports.

We adhere to “prevention first, disposal first,” closely monitor the flow of strategic minerals, strengthen information judgment and sharing, make timely warnings and relevant disposal, and strictly prevent the illegal outflow of strategic minerals.

Some people worry that “non-tariff policy” means that we will immediately lift the restrictions on rare earth exports to the U.S. Now everyone can rest assured that this does not mean that strategic minerals such as rare earth will flow randomly.

The establishment of the National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism or top-level design is not something set up casually. Information flow between departments requires a document circulation mechanism, which is step by step reinforced. Then look at the sectors leading it; for example, the Ministry of Public Security, which has law enforcement power; the Ministry of State Security, which handles intelligence work; the Ministry of Natural Resources, directly tied to rare earth resources; the Ministry of Transport, which directly decides on land, air, or sea transport; the SASAC, directly involving various state-owned enterprises; the General Administration of Customs, managing imports and exports and anti-smuggling; the State Administration for Market Regulation, with oversight and disposal rights over market entities; the State Post Bureau, even blocking the mailing route.

We see a total of 10 departments and 7 provinces; combined, each locality plugs the gaps tightly. If we create such a big commotion, and then the U.S. says “leave it,” that’s simply not possible. So, everyone needs to maintain full confidence.

Guancha.cn: Teacher Shen Yi’s interpretation has also given us full confidence.

Shen Yi: I will repeat what I said before; today is indeed a victorious day, and everyone should be willing to embrace victory. At least today, you can give yourself a short break and not be so anxious. Keep confidence and composure, be resilient in cognition and thought, especially adapting to high-intensity confrontation, to maintain overall emotional stability.

Editor: Zhongxiaowen